Modeling climate change effects on the potential production of French plains forests at the sub-regional level.
نویسندگان
چکیده
We modeled the effects of climate change and two forest management scenarios on wood production and forest carbon balance in French forests using process-based models of forest growth. We combined data from the national forest inventory and soil network survey, which were aggregated over a 50 x 50-km grid, i.e., the spatial resolution of the climate scenario data. We predicted and analyzed the climate impact on potential forest production over the period 1960-2100. All models predicted a slight increase in potential forest yield until 2030-2050, followed by a plateau or a decline around 2070-2100, with overall, a greater increase in yield in northern France than in the south. Gross and net primary productivities were more negatively affected by soil water and atmospheric water vapor saturation deficits in western France because of a more pronounced shift in seasonal rainfall from summer to winter. The rotation-averaged values of carbon flux and production for different forest management options were estimated during four years (1980, 2015, 2045 and 2080). Predictions were made using a two-dimensional matrix covering the range of local soil and climate conditions. The changes in ecosystem fluxes and forest production were explained by the counterbalancing effect of rising CO2 concentration and increasing water deficit. The effect of climate change decreased with rotation length from short rotations with high production rates and low standing biomasses to long rotations with low productivities and greater standing biomasses. Climate effects on productivity, both negative and positive, were greatest on high fertility sites. Forest productivity in northern France was enhanced by climate change, increasingly from west to east, whereas in the southwestern Atlantic region, productivity was reduced by climate change to an increasing degree from west to east.
منابع مشابه
Assessment of impact of climate change on potato and potential adaptation gains in the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India
India is the second largest producer of potato in the world. The Indo-Gangeticplains (IGP) is the main potato growing region accounting for almost 85% of the1.8 Mha under the crop in India where it is grown as an irrigated crop during thewinter season. Since IGP is in sub-tropical plains, duration of the thermally suitablewindow is the main determinant limiting yields. Hence the impact of clima...
متن کاملModeling the effects of climate change on the distribution of Acanthalburnus urmianus (Günther, 1899) in Urmia lake basin rivers
According to the reports of the International Panel Climate Change (IPCC) there is no doubt about climate change occurring. All ecosystems on the earth have being concerned by the effects of climate change. Urmia lake basin and its rivers exposed to numerous anthropogenic stressors such as hydrological, morphological, connectivity and water quality pressures. The main objective of this study is...
متن کاملThe Impact of Climate Change on Yield Potential of Maize across China
Maize is one of the major crops in China and its yield potential has been changedsignificantly by climate change induction during last five decades. The national policy of maizeproduction sufficiency emphasizes the necessity for a more accurate estimation of yieldpotential of maize at a national level. In this paper yield potential of maize was calculated usingthe Global Agro-Ecological Zones (...
متن کاملEstimating the Impacts of Climate Change and Potential Adaptation Strategies on Cereal Grains in the United States
Climate change induced alterations from historical patterns of precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric gases as well as increases in the frequency of extreme events is leading to alterations in global cereal production and its spatial distribution. Using a US agricultural sector model, we examine effects and acreage adaptation with an emphasis on wheat and the Pacific Northwest region. Use ...
متن کاملModeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change Scenarios
Although turtles are the most threatened taxonomic group within the reptile class, we have a very limited understanding of how turtles respond to climate change. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate changes on the geographical distribution of Caspian pond turtle (Mauremys caspica). We used an ensemble approach by combining six species distribution models including artificial neural network...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Tree physiology
دوره 25 7 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2005